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Thursday 23 October 2025, ADE

Adam Beyer at Awakenings x Spectrum. Nobody heard this set.

The model never saw this tracklist, its re-uploads or its radio rebroadcasts. From other public tracklists alone it named 11 of the 30 works that were played. This is the best-predicted ADE set by an artist with history in the corpus.

Predicted

Ranked by probability, without seeing this set. Open a row for the evidence behind it.

# Work Probability

Played

The tracklist as MixesDB lists it, in order, hidden from the prediction.

  1. Time Work In the estimate
  2. 000 Thomas Schumacher - Schall (Revisited) (A.D.H.S. Remix) Not predicted
  3. 00? Adam Beyer - We Don't Say Please Rank 19
  4. 005 Victor Ruiz & Moreira - Every Day Not predicted
  5. 008 Faithless - We Come 1 (Adam Beyer Remix) Rank 5
  6. 013 Marco V - Loxia Rank 4
  7. 017 Alex Stein - Full Circle Rank 25
  8. 020 Tao Andra - Rave In Progress Not predicted
  9. 023 Mattia Saviolo - Parallel Dimension Rank 22
  10. 027 Unknown track
    Not named in the tracklist, often an unreleased ID or an edit. No title, no work to pay.
    Not identified
  11. 030 Unknown track
    Not named in the tracklist, often an unreleased ID or an edit. No title, no work to pay.
    Not identified
  12. 033 Wehbba & Alan Fitzpatrick - Take U Higher Not predicted
  13. 037 Ian O'Donovan - Blacklight Not predicted
  14. 041 Adam Beyer - Desert Queen Rank 10
  15. 045 Drunken Kong - Wild Within Not predicted
  16. 048 ADRIANNA - Shake The Underground (Tao Andra Remix) Not predicted
  17. 051 LUSU - Move 2 The Groove Rank 11
  18. 055 Pan-Pot - Nightcode Not predicted
  19. 059 Unknown track
    Not named in the tracklist, often an unreleased ID or an edit. No title, no work to pay.
    Not identified
  20. 064 Dan Dobson - Leap Of Faith Not predicted
  21. 067 Unknown track
    Not named in the tracklist, often an unreleased ID or an edit. No title, no work to pay.
    Not identified
  22. 071 LUSU - Like This Not predicted
  23. 075 HOF - We Won't Stop Not predicted
  24. 079 Neumann & Bendtsen - Phantom Express Rank 30
  25. 0?? Tiga vs Audion - Let's Go Dancing (Acapella) Rank 29
  26. 083 HI-LO - NYC TO AMSTERDAM Not predicted
  27. 087 DJ One Finger - One Finger (DJ Dextro Re-Edit 2024) Not predicted
  28. 089 Armin van Buuren & Adam Beyer - Techno Trance Rank 1
  29. 094 Da Hool - Meet Her At The Love Parade (Daxson Remix) Rank 13
  30. 097 Thomas Schumacher & A.D.H.S. - Ex Machina Not predicted
  31. 100 LUSU - Afterlife Not predicted
  32. 10? Rhythm Controll - My House (In Beginning, There Was Jack... Acapella) Not predicted
  33. 104 A.D.H.S. - KOMANI Not predicted
  34. 107 JackRock - Crystalline Not predicted
  35. 112 Victor Ruiz & Ignacio Arfeli - Ascend Not predicted

What the society gets for sets nobody monitored

The licence fee for Awakenings x Spectrum on 23 October, split over the works the blind predictions name, next to the share the published tracklists give each work.

Fee to the right work

37%

This event, predicted blind

From the season's chart alone

7%

The best estimate without a tracklist

Licence fee for the event

Split over 12 works, 60% held back as unassigned

#
Work
Label
Share
Amount
Published share
1 Armin van Buuren & Adam Beyer - Techno Trance Armada 3,3% 3,3%
2 HI-LO - REESE Drumcode 3,3% Not played
3 Adam Beyer & Bart Skils - Your Mind Drumcode 3,3% Not played
4 Marco V - Loxia Be Yourself 3,3% 3,3%
5 Faithless - We Come 1 (Adam Beyer Remix) Cheeky 3,3% 3,3%
6 Layton Giordani & Green Velvet - When It Kicks 3,3% Not played
7 Kaufmann - Broncho's Sandman Drumcode 3,3% Not played
8 Anyma & Baset - Neverland (From Japan) (HNTR Remix) The End Of Genesys 3,3% Not played
9 Sam Paganini - Rave (MorganJ Remix) Drumcode 3,3% Not played
10 Adam Beyer - Desert Queen Drumcode 3,3% 3,3%
11 LUSU - Move 2 The Groove Drumcode 3,3% 3,3%
12 Adam Beyer - Taking Back Control Drumcode 3,3% Not played
Assigned 40%

The model is not the bottleneck. The data is.

The same backtest on the sets by artists with public history, with a random share of the 29.790 public sets and shows as evidence. Every tracklist added still moves more money to the right work. Each set adds a little less than the one before, as evidence does, but the gain has not stopped.

Public tracklists are a thin slice, and 14% of their lines are an ID nobody could name. Monitored sets are the same evidence at a different volume, with every ID read from the player.

Public tracklists today

17,6%

Fee to the right work

Twice the tracklists

20,5%

If the trend holds: not a measurement

Measured
Trend carried on

Fee to the right work by the share of today's corpus used. The dashed line carries the measured trend on and is not a measurement.

Against what societies pay out on today

Averaged over 646 hidden sets by artists with at least three other live sets in the six months around the set's date, with each set's fee split over the lines its tracklist could identify. The model may use the 365 days either side of the set's date and the season's chart six months, because a society distributes months after it. Using only sets from before the set's date, the model sends 12,3% of the fee to the right work against 1,1% from the chart: 11,0×.

Fee to the right work

11,7×

18% against 1% from the chart

Fee to the right writer

8,4×

24% against 3% from the chart

Fee to the right label

5,4×

26% against 5% from the chart

Settle, predicted blind
The season's chart

A first measurement on community tracklists, not yet a basis for a distribution decision. Validation on monitored sets is the next step. For the 3.017 sets by artists without that public history, the model reaches 7,9% and the chart 0,5%: without evidence there is no estimate, and that is the share of the market monitored sets would open up.

Settle

Royalties for the sets nobody monitored.